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Select Archives: 2006

'Select' rather than 'Comprehensive' due to the degree of repetitive reinforcement for overall intermediate-term and long-term fundamental perspectives and critical technical projections. While consulting clients find revisitng major themes and certain technical indications useful,
a full archive would be over loaded, and less relevant regarding the true nature of our analysis.

  Other Archived Reports selected for meaningful insights: 2009    2008    2007    2005

These were chosen for their insights at key technical turning points for price trends, significant sustained fundamental factors and/or some general educational benefit.

Capital Markets Observer II-49      Tuesday, December 12, 2006
An extension of the previous views on risk factors into 2007, with additional considerations for the FOMC, the US-China Dialogue, US Housing (again), Geopolitics, and a bit of Miscellany that revisits the latest madcap antics of what passes for government in the USA.
Click to Read
Read John Mauldin's excellent 'Thoughts...' on the US housing market

Capital Markets Observer II-48      Wednesday, December 6, 2006
“Smooth Rebalancing? …or… The Crash of ’07?” explores how risk factors are mounting due to inconsistencies in market trends, and changes which may hit in early 2007.  Additional topics attendant to this view: Risk Contingencies, The Fed, US Housing, Forex, Germany, Equities, Debt.
Click to Read

TrendView BRIEF UPDATE      Thursday, November 16, 2006
Another sharp warning: a potential critical failure in fixed income if it dropped from key resistance after below-estimate US CPI capped a week of soft news; which is exactly what occurred.  By quickly forgetting the 'lesson' of equities excessive exuberance, the Fed may be falling behind the curve.
Click to Read
Click to Read 'Fed learns lesson on interest rate' (December 2005)

Capital Markets Observer II-45      Tuesday, November 14, 2006
'The Good, The Bad and The Ugly' explores how the latter is indicative of the much tougher investment climate into 2007, when funds managers might take the Man With No Name's view, "If you cut down my percentage, it's liable to interfere with my aim."  As such, investors are at risk.   'The Bad' accurately anticipates Dem's instant internal acrimony as a risk for Washington gridlock.
Click to Read

Capital Markets Observer II-44      Monday, November 6, 2006
'Reporting Cycle Oscillation' expectations of strong news this week is correct, yet fixed pushes back up to resistances. 'US Bi-Election': it's better if Dems take both houses; Miscellany: 'Why Politics Has Degenerated Into Farce.'
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TrendView BRIEF UPDATE      Friday, November 3, 2006
A sharp warning of the possible radical fixed income response to the US Employment report, with a downside bias due to Thursday's much higher than expected Unit Labor Costs depressing Productivity. Yet, the inflationary implications of the strong jobs numbers were very well-received by equities.
Click to Read

Capital Markets Observer II-42      Monday, October 23, 2006
'FOMC/Equities Showdown' explores the continuing dissonance between the Fed's doves and very strong corporate earnings, which could reinvigorate the economy.   And if hikes are indeed needed, what happens to 'transparency'?  Are retail investors being lured back to the equities due to the new highs?
Click to Read

TrendView BRIEF UPDATE      Thursday, October 19, 2006
Troublingly weak fixed income response to constructively subdued news, especially weak sister UK.   Just building a base, or anticipating the impact of Friday's UK Q3 GDP, and expected upward revision to German 2006 GDP? Equities remain strong, in part due to continued energy market weakness.
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TrendView GENERAL UPDATE      Tuesday, October 17, 2006
Brief fundamental update on Monday's Observer, then refocused on tension between T-note slippage below critical mid 107-00 support, yet still needing a Bund faiure below 116.80 for a decisive capitulation of fixed income markets. Equities still look good, and the energy markets remain weak, yet critical.
Click to Read

TrendView MARKET ALERT      Wednesday, October 11, 2006
FOMC September 20th minutes are a SHOCKER!! Growth likely to strengthen in 2007 (kudos to Dr. Plosser), lower non-inflationary growth ceiling, housing weakness NOT spilling over, and slower growth NOT necessarily lowering inflation.   All quite hawkish, with further fixed income weakness becoming a technical problem in front of important European events Thursday morning.
Click to Read

TrendView BRIEF UPDATE      Wednesday, October 11, 2006
Mr. Greenspan's mea culpa: “...we tried that (bursting the bubble) in 1994/1995 and failed.” Also his views on housing is okay, and energy prices not likely to stay weak in the attached article.   Also RBA Governor Stevens' hawkish views, and a review of the critical technical levels for the T-note and Bund.
Click to Read
Click to Read the FT article on Mr. Greenspan's views (October 9, 2006)

Capital Markets Observer II-40      Monday, October 9, 2006
“There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies and statistics.” -Mark Twain (apochryphal quote of Benjamin Disraeli.) Reviewing the impact of the major BLS CES rebasing, short money forwards' lack of predictive value is revisited (with reference to "1970's Redux: Son of Stagflation.")  Also, the Fed hawks are more in tune than the chairman with major central banks' global view.
Click to Read
Click to Read the BLS CES Rebasing Press Release (October 6, 2006)

Capital Markets Observer II-39      Monday, October 2, 2006
"Your gonna need a bigger boat." The movie "JAWS" metaphor was a clear warning that within the critical trend decision cycle, this week "... things popping up ad hoc can turn the hunter into the hunted." The major BLS CES revision confirmed our instincts on Friday.  Also a really different view of inflation from the Dallas Fed, and hedge fund regulation comment.
Click to Read

Capital Markets Observer II-38      Tuesday, September 27, 2006
'Extended Fixed Income Technical Decision Outlook' reviews critical technical trend levels, and discusses the degree to which the overall fixed income decision likely awaits the important early October reports the following week.
Click to Read

TrendView GENERAL UPDATE      Wednesday, September 20, 2006
Our fundamental background and extensive technical trend indication analysis includes consideration of the possible equity market influence on the fixed income in the wake of the FOMC decision, especially any further equities strength with the DJIA near the 11,750 all-time high. The critical energy market support and stagnant foreign exchange situation are also reviewed.
Click to Read

Capital Markets Observer II-36      Wednesday, September 13, 2006
'Central Banks' and 'Inflation' focus on "Gentle Ben and the Vigilantes" dissension between FED and more hawkish stance of other central banks, along with why 'core' inflation is not a reliable guide. 'Debt Tech' explores the critical nature of the discounted December Bund support for all fixed income.
Click to Read
Click to Read the FT Core Inflation Comment from Dr. Stephen Cecchetti

TrendView GENERAL UPDATE      Friday, August 11, 2006
Our brief analysis of fundamental background and extensive review of the technical trend indications. In this instance that includes due consideration of the weakness of the fixed income leaving those markets at critical interim support (and major support in the Gilt.) The other markets are still churnining along in late summer trading ranges.
Click to Read

Capital Markets Observer II-34      Monday, August 7, 2006
FOMC will hold rates steady on Tuesday. This may be a mistake, as noted in 'Transitional Fixed Income Markets' and 'Technical Factors' comments on the contrary hawkish stance of other central banks, which are reinforced by an already inverted US yield curve and lack of technical confirmation.
Click to Read

Capital Markets Observer II-31      Wednesday, July 19, 2006
Equity Market Psychology will improve if Mr. Bernanke's testimony focuses on economic drags. Yet, US Inflation indications should be more focused on headline rates as energy and other prices remain stubbornly high. This ultimately holds very significant implications for the FOMC and equity markets. Click to Read

Capital Markets Observer II-30      Tuesday, July 11, 2006
Fixed Income Psychology:   We had noted previous that major mid-May lows were likely the end of the aggressive down trend. In spite of T-note slippage to the 104-00 area support, the lapse into range bound basing attempts was only confirmed after the early July weak US June Non-Farm Payrolls, with ample technical and historic evidence for sustained summer stability.
Click to Read

Capital Markets Observer II-25      Thursday, June 8, 2006
Very Interesting Financial Times Analysis: Our somewhat premature suggestion that the 1970's style 'stagflation' was coming back had finally become enough of a reality for the mainstream business press to echo that sentiment in "Is it back to the 1970s?"
Click to Read
Click to Read the excellent FT Comment & Analysis attachment

Capital Markets Observer II-24      Thursday, June 8, 2006
Bernanke the Bold emerges to dispel any residual 'girlie-man' central banker image from his late April faux 'pause'. Yet, de facto inflation targeting is a significant burden for the equity markets. It will likely trigger the major DJIA intermediate term correction to the 9,000 area.
Click to Read

TrendView BRIEF UPDATE      Thursday, June 8, 2006
Timely review of critical contingencies prior to ECB rate hike, with bullish bias to long dated fixed income, especially if DJIA drops below key 10,900 support. Also EUR/USD 1.2780 support violation is critical for the US dollar upturn.
Click to Read

TrendView BRIEF UPDATE      Monday, May 22, 2006
While the T-note was choppy above 105-16,... "...the weakness of the equities is now the driving force,... ...and that looks to continue for a while." US dollar bulls were disappointed by EUR/USD holding 1.2750 on the weekly Close.
Click to Read

TrendView MARKET ALERT      Friday, May 5, 2006
Our most concise analysis, focusing on critical information or price levels if a major report release or announcement impacts the trend. Timely and effective. This one focused on the importance of the 105-11 area resistance in the June T-note future after the release of the weak US April Employment report.
Click to Read

TrendView BRIEF UPDATE      Wednesday, May 3, 2006
A follow up to previous consideration of Mr. Bernanke's "pause" vacillation, with a gaming analogy for the May 10th meeting, and historic reference.
Click to Read

TrendView GENERAL UPDATE      Tuesday, May 2, 2006
Our brief analysis of fundamental background and extensive review of the technical trend indications. In this instance that includes due consideration of Mr. Bernanke's poorly handled introduction of the possible FOMC "pause." This is followed by extensive yet pointed technical insights which are a key to successful trend analysis, especially the critical trend decision levels/ranges.
Click to Read

Capital Markets Observer II-19      Monday, May 1, 2006
Bernanke blinks by proactively suggesting an FOMC "pause" may occur sooner than not (later retracted.) Wild FOMC Thought (50 point hike May 10th.) US dollar sharp selloff is more likely stale carry trades than rates.
Click to Read

Capital Markets Observer II-13      Wednesday, March 29, 2006
Coverage of continued misplaced notions on FOMC, very pernicious late month fixed income activity, and restatement of negative US dollar view.
Click to Read

Capital Markets Observer II-10      Friday, March 3, 2006
Both ECB and OECD focus on stronger inflation and growth, reinforcing our bearish view of fixed income. Independently weak US dollar also reviewed.
Click to Read

Capital Markets Observer II-4 (Excerpt)      Tuesday, January 24, 2006
Excerpt on strong indications for a major Bund failure below 121.50 area leading to aggressive bear, and the reasons behind its previous mispricing.
Click to Read