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Select Archives: 2005

'Select' rather than 'Comprehensive' due to the degree of repetitive reinforcement for overall intermediate-term and long-term fundamental perspectives and critical technical projections. While consulting clients find revisitng major themes and certain technical indications useful,
a full archive would be over loaded, and less relevant regarding the true nature of our analysis.

  Other Archived Reports selected for meaningful insights: 2009    2008    2007    2006

These were chosen for their insights at key technical turning points for price trends, significant sustained fundamental factors and/or some general educational benefit.

Major Report!!
Monday, March 21, 2005

1970's Redux: Son of Stagflation
This major report delves into significant historic background to explain the reasons behind Mr. Greenspan's low long yield "conundrum", the weaker US dollar after the Federal Reserve began tightening in 2004, and why both would eventually head back up.
Still relevant perspective...      "...we could send you back to the future."1
Click the link for a more extensive description at the bottom of this page.
Capital Markets Observer I-17      Thursday, December 15, 2005
Yield curve sensibility. Labor wage demands in Germany. Critical review of two major US dollar factors: 'Dark Matter' theory of why the deficit had not already crippled the buck, and why the Gold and US dollar were about to part company after their 2005 rally, with only the Gold likely to continue higher.
Click to Read

Capital Markets Observer I-12      Tuesday, November 22, 2005
More central bank review: major focus on the relationship between equity markets, the Fed and the US short money forwards. Also ECB and BoE.
Click to Read

Capital Markets Observer I-10      Wednesday, November 2, 2005
The clear indication the three pillars of the Bund bull were crumbling, albeit allowing for a rally if mid-low 119.00s held. Major central bankers review, with first articulation of the five step logic for 4.75% Fed Funds at Mr. Bernanke's frist meeting as Chairman on March 28th.
Click to Read

TrendView BRIEF UPDATE      Wednesday, September 28, 2005
Clear analysis of Mr. Greenspan's "history lesson" that masked strong indications the FOMC was to push Fed Funds farther than most thought.
Click to Read
Click to Read Mr. Greenspan's speech (with Rohr highlights on page 4)

Capital Markets Observer I-08      Monday, September 12, 2005
"The Agony and the Irony." Quarterly contract expiration view that the Bund was critical into upper 123.00 area (the start of the bear.) Extensive Katrina damage would not stop the FOMC from hiking September 20th, due to the lack of a national economic drag and higher energy prices. ECB begins to focus on wages and energy expense as inflationary.
Click to Read

1970's Redux: Son of Stagflation
This major report delves into significant historic background to explain the reasons behind Mr. Greenspan's yield curve "conundrum." The multiple reasons for lower than expected long term interest rates and a weaker US dollar after the Fed began tightening in 2004, and why they would both eventually head back up, are analyzed in detail.
"...we could send you back to the future."1
1 Professor Emmett Brown to Marty McFly in Back to the Future
(1985, Universal Studios; directed by Robert Zemeckis)

The overall theme of this report is anomalies in intermediate term fixed income and foreign exchange cycles. These are ultimately due to the recent and current extended trend phase encompassing necessary long term adjustments after the year 2000 end of the twenty-five year major economic and equity market cycle. It naturally calls for rather more extensive review of historic (and then current) politico-economic and price trend tendencies than our normal Special Market Highlight.

Yet, all of these long term factors remain very relevant to addressing the various "conundrums" (as Mr. Greenspan so aptly expressed it) which continue to vex even successful long term market analysts and portfolio managers during what are still the early years of the cycle in the new millennium. It also discusses how some extensive dislocations occurred in the short term interest rate instruments as well.

This was published by our affiliate, Institutional Trend Insight, Inc.
For ease of review, charts are embedded in the report instead of listed as additional files. This makes it a very extensive report (37 pages that include 26 charts in a 5 Mb file), and depending on your connection speed it may take awhile to download.
Click to Read