Financial Times Short View column: 'W' is for worry or for win? (August 31, 2011)
Click to Watch Financial Times 'Short View' Video
Rohr not cited in this column, but excellent perspective. FT Investment Editor James Mackintosh provides the best ever financial press column on real-world trend analysis.
As macro-technical (price trends in the context of politico-economics) analysts, this is an excellent insight into that particular 'trend' analysis genre. [Video contains entire print column content and more.]
"The facts suggest the W stands for “worry”. Chartists themselves dismiss the pattern as not a proper double bottom, as it occurred over too short a period and came with too little volume on the final upward stroke."
"With or without charts, equities are expensive on long-term valuation measures."
'Taxulationsim' - why the Fed's QE2 might not succeed (November 2, 2010)
Financial Times 'Insight' column where Alan Rohrbach reviews the reasons the Fed might be misguided to provide more liquidity in the hope it would lower government bond yields and assist the US economy.
The QE2 program started at the FOMC meeting shortly after this column was published on election morning.
While it cured portfolios by inflating equities and risk assets, bond yields went higher and the economy (especially housing) was not helped.
There was also review of political gridlock likely to develop when Republicans did not gain US Senate control.
[The entire scanned article is hyper-linked back to the original at ft.com for easier reading.]
"The reason QE2 might not work is that the real US crisis is not one of liquidity, but of confidence borne of confusion on tax and regulation.
The US National Federation of Independent Business surveys of small business confidence have repeatedly shown that smaller companies see the future as bleak..."
"QE2 might spark a drop of several percentage points in the US Dollar Index as well as a jump in bond yields."
"Rather than taking comfort from QE2, we should fasten our seatbelts for a rough taxulationism ride."
The party's over when the music stops (September 7, 2007)
Financial Times 'Long View' discussion of how the Fed succeeded in overcoming serial near-term crises since the 1998 Long Term Capital Management debacle by throwing money at the problems.
Yet it also explores why things might be different this time.
"As Alan Rohrbach, of Rohr Capital Markets in Chicago, puts it, the 1998 crisis was based on the major banks and securities firms outsourcing the trading risks... on one big fund"
"Now, investment banks are packagers of risk that has largely been passed on to investors and (in the US) mortgage debtors" ".…(and) it is not clear that cheaper money will resolve it."
-FT analyst John Authers
Bond math yields to animal spirits (highlighted version) (June 14, 2007)
Financial Times 'Short View' fixed income analysis, including the previous Rohr projection it might bottom in spite of heavy downward momentum and negative psychology.
(See June 12, 2007 Capital Markets Observer III-24 extended analysis in the Select Archives, and especially page 2 summary view in next day's BRIEF UPDATE.)
"Analysts of trading patterns had predicted something like this could happen." "(Rohr)... ...pointed out just before yesterday's bounce
that a break through several psychological landmarks had come just as a long-term trend (for rising yields) was looking over-extended, and as bearish sentiment had become overwhelming."
"These were reasons to buy." -FT analyst John Authers
Rohr article: "Technical Versus (??) Fundamental" (June 1996)
Are Most Trend Analysts Doing About The Same Thing from Different Perspectives?
"The market is a creature of expectations." -Anonymous
Rohr article: "The Importance of Balance" (June 1996)
Why the Major Classes of Technical Indicators Are Best Viewed
in Conjunction and Across Time Frames.
"In danger all that counts is really carrying out all that has to be done - thoroughness - and going forward, in order not to perish by tarrying in the danger."  - The I Ching1
1 Wilhelm, Richard, The I Ching, Princeton University Press, Princeton, Copyright 1950 by Bollingen Foundation Inc., p. 115., as translated into English by C.F. Baynes.
Letters & Vetted Postings
"Danger requires ‘thorough’ approach" Rohr response to...
FT LEX 'Charts aflutter' ('Moving average' in online edition) (June 28, 2009)
FT LEX forum Rohr expansion of cogent Lex price trend analysis view. (June 30, 2009)
LEX aptly notes, “Investors should remember that all trading techniques sometimes work and sometimes they do not.”
And among other expansions on that rightful direction, Rohr refers back to its article on 'balance' (see above) for an excerpt from the I Ching:
"In danger all that counts is… thoroughness - and going forward, in order not to perish by tarrying in the danger",
along with other aspects of why a 'macro' (combined fundamental and techncial) approach is often best.
Steroidal growth assumptions no ‘new dawn’ for markets
FT LEX forum Rohr refutation of US administration assumptions. (March 9, 2009)
"The only way to justify the major tax hikes on the ‘rich’ from the end of 2010 is assuming that occurs into a strong economy."
"...(that requires) inclusion of the steroidal growth periods during the Dot.Com and combined Credit and
Housing Bubbles that are now broadly recognized as unsustainable;..."
Managers must tinker to transcend
FT letters page: Rohr on incrementalism achieving big goals. (December 15, 2008)
"With so many fancy models in disrepute there is a desire to rediscover first principles."
"Western Electric’s Hawthorne Works... was indeed a crucible for experiments just as controversial at the time as they are now."
"...my grandfather was one of the people gathering information and implementing the experiments."
Dear US president-elect
FT LEX forum Rohr radical housing/economic suggestion. (November 7, 2008)
"Can the president-elect correct the Masters’ cart & horse ‘core’ problem?"
"...the president-elect could do worse than to begin by stabilizing housing, which would assist communities and regional economies along the way.”
Shifting suppositions support ‘macro’ market reality
FT LEX forum Rohr ideas on why a balanced approach is necessary. (October 30, 2008)
"Kudos to the FT's Tony Jackson for pointing out a couple of core principles that seem to get lost during extended bull markets."
“Back to those important ‘suppositions’. Proper application of any analysis requires an appreciation it can only suggest what the market is ‘supposed’ to be doing.
It is then up to the analyst or investor to assess whether the analysis is succeeding or not;...”
Why US bond yields are artificially low (highlighted version)
FT LEX forum Rohr comment on equities recovery will pressure the bonds (April 16, 2008)
"However, those US government bond yields have been artificially suppressed by a 'haven' effect, attracting large flows due to pervasive recent suspicion over the fungibility of debt from low-rated issuers.
They may remain low while equity markets suffer, yet are not likely to do so once the crisis is over.”
Carry 'sequence' cart and horse common sense! (highlighted version)
FT LEX forum Rohr comment on more specious carry trade concerns (August 7, 2007)
Rohr refutes the notion equity market weakness + yen strength = Carry Trade Crisis.
A simple review of the 'sequence' of the asset market devaluation and yen strength illustrates the same point as clearly articulated back in March (and previous.)
Unavoidable systemic risk (highlighted version)
FT LEX forum Rohr comment on financial engineering, fear and greed (July 12, 2007)
Discordant comments from two financial industry prime movers elicited Rohr's observations on why human nature means it's never really 'different this time.'
Regulator gets it right on Chicago exchanges merger
FT letters page: Rohr on sensible DoJ CME/CBOT merger decision (June 27, 2007)
"It is refreshing to see a major government regulator get it right, and for the right reasons."
"The DoJ took the rightful view that (benefits to retail traders as well as global competition factors) transcend any draconian provincial considerations."
Learn to love the bubble (highlighted version)
FT LEX forum Rohr comment on extended equity market resilience (June 14, 2007)
As positive factors and risk complacency dominate, it pays to love the bubble.
Yet, as opposed to getting married to a permanently bullish psychology, one should appreciate it as a serious infatuation.
Interest rate 'comfort zone' Catch 22
Financial Times LEX forum Rohr comment on Mr. Mishkin's 'comfort zone' (April 2, 2007)
Mr. Mishkin's 'Inflation Dynamics' speech may have correctly descibed the collateral damage necessary to get inflation back down into the Fed's comfort zone.
Yet, if that becomes the actual policy prerogative, it will be the first time since the G. WIlliam Miller era of the 1970's that jobs are a higher Fed priority than inflation credentials.
This de facto monetization of public and consumer debt almost never ends well.
Mideast progress: wishful thinking or a real possibility?
Financial Times letters page: Rohr on real Mideast contingencies (March 23, 2007)
The geopolitical impact of the Mideast peace process can have a very real effect on global markets through energy prices and general unease. Can both sides finally agree to negotaite in good faith? It all depends on their definition of 'victory.'
Just desserts for a dovish Fed
Financial Times LEX forum Rohr discussion of Mr. Bernanke's role (February 27, 2007)
This week brought a previous Fed Chairman into juxtaposition with the current one.
Mr. Bernanke's refusal to foment a manageable contraction earlier in the cycle has left him open to the worst implications of La Fontaine’s observation, “Our destiny is frequently met in the very paths we take to avoid it."
Sent just prior to his testimony in the wake of the Greenspan comment-triggered equity market problems, it hoped Mr. Bernake had made the transition from 'professor' to "World's Central Banker" prime mover; in the event, he and Mr. Paulson carried the day.
An opaque design for transparent ECB
Financial Times letters page Rohr letter on architectural article (December 2, 2006)
Irreverant comment on ultra-modern new European Central Bank headquarters design. Does the Euro really benefit from an ECB HQ which denigrates existing architecture, is opaque, and appears to be tipping to the point of being unstable?
Keeping a handle on the hellish hand basket
Financial Times letters page Rohr response (November 3, 2006)
Jaundiced response to FT Comment "Too many people are tuning out of the news", submitted by the estimable FT ex-Editor-in-Chief Richard Lambert (November 1.) That nobody cares beyond their parochial interests and issues means news is all devolving into partisan soundbite twaddle.
"The basic view is the same as that of any reasonably intelligent citizen of Rome living through the decline of the empire."
Real test will come later, but for now Bernanke triumphs
Financial Times letters page Rohr opinion (July 25, 2006)
"More 'Greenspan-esque'... ...tone and content... ...have restored his credibility..." "The real risks only come later if the Fed's expectations... ...are not realized."
"In which case, instead of just watering down the content, the Fed may still need to pull the punch bowl."
Federal Reserve may still have to pull the punch-bowl at the party
Financial Times letters page Rohr opinion (April 21, 2006)
"I... ...disagree with this misplaced notion,..." "...the Fed end its tightening exercise."
"I remind everyone again of Alan Greenspan's admonition in September last year..."
Fed learns lesson on interest rate
Financial Times letters page Rohr response to Opinion below (December 2, 2005)
"Yet there are clear indications that the Fed is prepared to go further than most observers presume..."
Close to neutral
Opinion of the Editor of the Financial Times (November 28, 2005)
"With rates at 4 per cent, the Fed is on the threshold of a neutral zone..."
We question that in the subsequent observation (above) on that theme...
The big risks of future miscues
Financial Times letters page Rohr response to FT analysis (March 18, 2005)
'It is both disconcerting and just plain annoying that seasoned financial market commentators often assert that forward futures prices tell us something about what the future holds ("Getting used to oil at $50", March 11).'
We always do our best to refute that misplaced notion, with Crude Oil and Eurodollar examples in this instance.