Opalesque Articles Trilogy on the challenges of altered trend tendencies|
Opalesque is a broad based industry intelligence organization serving mainstream and alternative investment communities.
Its Futures Intelligence publication goes well beyond sheer derivatives coverage to extensively investigate alternative investment trends and profile successful managers.
This series of brief articles explores the major changes in trend tendencies that are likely to maintain for the foreseeable future in the wake of the October 2008 Super-Cycle Correction(sm) shockwave.
Opalesque Futures Intelligence #7 excerpted Alan Rohrbach article (May 5, 2009)
In addition to our Super-Cycle Correction(sm) article excerpt, we suggest accessing the full
OFI issue #7 for additional insights on the differences between 'trend system' and 'macro analysis' approaches in the
excellent interview of Abbey Capital's Mr. Tony Gannon beginning on page 7. There are also quite a few other very interesting articles.
"This historic pattern (from the 1930's) has implications for price recovery potential after October 2008. And the economic fundamentals are completely consistent with this technical view."
"Portfolio managers need to ‘un-learn’ the idea that serial variations of buy-and-hold are always viable..."
"...for the equities as well as other asset classes while the current unsettled economic situation is being resolved."
Opalesque Futures Intelligence #12 Alan Rohrbach article (August 11, 2009)
This next step in the series looked both back and forward, illuminating the fact that what occurred in 2008 was more clear cut than most observers would allow. It then reviews basic technical ideas on what might be coming next for the already extensive rally.
"Government ‘fixes’ for economic woes will only exacerbate volatility rotation through asset classes, alternating with confusion-bred quietude." "(In 2008)...there were straightforward developments, the analysis of which remains very useful in the current environment." "Any push above (DJIA 9,200) might quickly retest the major 9,700-10,000 previous DOWN Break area,... ...the next 10%+ adjustment either way."
Opalesque Futures Intelligence #16 Alan Rohrbach article (November 3, 2009)
"New Quarter, Major Challenges" sums it up. While the equities had been able to shake off every near term topping tendency and specific technical top indication for months, it still left them only back to where all the problems became so pronounced in October 2008. In addition to that psychological hurdle, they now also faced historic technical obstacles around DJIA 10,000 and greater fundamental doubts than anything experienced at the intermediate term levels on the way up from the major March lows. The implication for fund managers was less one of becoming intrinsically bearish than keeping a close watch on which future scenario was the most likely alternative to be unfolding. In any event, the sustained trend volatility alternating with tedious quietude was likely to continue.
"Post-crash markets have exhibited stop-start volatility and extreme moves... ...in essence a return from the 1990’s Great Moderation to late-1970’s through 1980’s style trends." "A whole series of trend decisions have occurred from (DJIA 10,000) area. ...it is relevant to the next major phase of the equities trend." "...this is the first global credit deleveraging since the 1930's, and... ...(the chart) below is a stark reminder of how hard it is for markets to recover into major higher ranges after a debilitating shockwave." "The bottom line is that... ...the extended equities rally is no reason for active managers to dismiss the need for aggressive trend assessment."