Sherlock Holmes and Dynamic Disequilibrium (11/21/2008)
Sherlock Holmes on investigation in “The Sign of the Four”: “…when you have eliminated the impossible, whatever remains, however improbable, must be the truth.”
Rohr Axiom of Dynamic Disequilibrium of Price Trends: Prices exist in a constant state of disequilibrium... are dynamic, and... generally seek directional movement.
FT Tony Jackson "Take care not to be misled in search for the bottom"
FT Tony Jackson "IMF thesis gives no reason to think the worst is over"
EQUITIES Tech: 'Macro' Analysis of DJIA Turning Stale (6/5/2008)
Classic fundamental optimism into highly suspicious technical basing activity.
"Moving on to purely technical aspects... DJIA... loose Double Bottom... into March was a hopeful sign." "However,... continued lack of volume and inability to push above... 13,000-100 area was a real problem,..." (that led to a failure to new lows.)
Rohr article: "The Importance of Balance" (June 1996)
Major Classes of Technicals Best Viewed in Conjunction and Across Time Frames.
"In danger all that counts is really carrying out all that has to be done - thoroughness - and going forward, in order not to perish by tarrying in danger."
- The I Ching1
1 Wilhelm, Richard, The I Ching, Princeton University Press, Princeton, Copyright 1950 by Bollingen Foundation Inc., p. 115., as translated into English by C.F. Baynes.
Carry 'sequence' cart and horse common sense!
FT LEX forum Rohr comment on more specious carry trade concerns (August 7, 2007)
Rohr refutes the notion equity market weakness + yen strength = Carry Trade Crisis.
A simple review of the 'sequence' of the asset market devaluation and yen strength illustrates the same point as clearly articulated back in March (and previous.)
Rohr article: "Technical Versus (??) Fundamental" (June 1996)
Are Most Trend Analysts Doing About The Same Thing from Different Perspectives?
"The market is a creature of expectations." -Anonymous
Unavoidable systemic risk (highlighted version)
FT LEX forum Rohr comment on financial engineering, fear and greed (July 12, 2007)
Discordant comments from two financial industry prime movers elicited Rohr's observations on why human nature means it's never really 'different this time.'
Regulator gets it right on Chicago exchanges merger
FT letters page: Rohr on sensible DoJ CME/CBOT merger decision (June 27, 2007)
"It is refreshing to see a major government regulator get it right, and for the right reasons."
"The DoJ took the rightful view that (benefits to retail traders as well as global competition factors) transcend any draconian provincial considerations."